Shotgun wedding?

The "will they, won't they" saga is almost over, as Sprint and Clearwire announced their plans to merge their wireless broadband units to create a new $14.55 billion wireless communications company.

As we speculated in an earlier post, the new company, to be named Clearwire, will receive a $3.2 billion investment from Intel Corp., Google Inc., Comcast Corp., Time Warner Cable Inc. and Bright House Networks. The investment is based on a target price of $20 per Clearwire share and will give the companies a 22 percent stake in the new venture. Sprint Nextel Corp. will be majority owner with a 51 percent equity stake, while existing Clearwire shareholders will receive about 27 percent interest.

The new company is looking for a U.S. network deployment between 120 million and 140 million people by the end of 2010, and is expecting to start rolling out service by the end of the year.

If you look a little more closely at the structure of the deal, all of the partners have something to gain from making this work. Sprint will be able to resell Clearwire's WiMAX services, the new Clearwire will be able to resell 3G services on Sprint's existing network, and cable operators will be able to resell Sprint voice, 3G, and WiMax, which allows them to have a quintuple play (voice, data, and video over cable, plus mobile voice, and mobile data). While Intel and Google also both have an option to resell services, the real advantage for them is getting their respective technologies and brands in the next generation of "any time, any place, any device" broadband services.

For the smaller guys in the industry, like ourselves and Towerstream, this is going to be interesting. After a very slow start (the industry is currently about two years behind on the original timeline), momentum is picking up for WiMAX, and this latest move can only accelerate things further. Given the seemingly unquenchable thirst for bandwidth, the demand for mobility, and the fact that existing wired infrastructure is running out of steam and can't keep up, the new Clearwire has a real opportunity to clean up.

Given that Clearwire will continue to focus on the residential market, and we focus on the business market, we don't see them as competition. We see them as WiMAX 'evangelists', enthusiastically promoting and supporting WiMAX technologies, and we're happy to let them use their marketing budgets to educate the marketplace, increasing awareness and acceptance. That will allow us to focus on selling the unique benefits of WiMAX technologies (scalability, flexibility, low deployment costs, rapid deployment time, and superior price/performance), and how they can benefit business customers.

So… the 700 MHz spectrum auction is over, the dust has settled, and what has changed?

Well, on the face of it, not that much. Verizon paid about $9.63 billion for much of the “C” block, gaining enough spectrum to create a new nationwide network. AT&T, who had previously acquired a large chunk of 700-MHz spectrum, spent an additional $6.64 billion on much of the “B” block so that it can also create a new nationwide network.

The rules of the auction forbids the winners from talking about their plans until April 3rd, but the presumption is that they both wanted this spectrum in order to be able to build separate next-generation networks, utilizing Long Term Evolution (LTE) technology.

While this would avoid them risking disruption of their cash cow legacy networks (no-one else wants to go through what happened with the Sprint / Nextel integration fiasco), no-one should be holding their breath on this one. LTE technologies have been shown to work under lab conditions, but that is a long way from being ready to deploy in the field, nationwide. Reports suggest that LTE won’t be ready for prime-time until 2011, so there remains a significant window of opportunity for WiMAX deployments, where the technology is here now. Intel has forecasted that by the end of this year, there will be 400 WiMAX deployments nationwide, and that by 2010 (still one year ahead of LTE being available), WiMAX services will be accessible by 650 million people, or approx. 10% of the global population.

So what happened to Google, I hear you asking. Well, it appears that they got what they wanted, open access (albeit a watered down version), without spending a dime. They proved themselves as effective lobbyists, and it is going to be very interesting to see what will happen next as they (together with Dell, HP, Microsoft and Philips) turn their attention to their proposal to the FCC for allowing the airwaves between television broadcast channels -- the so-called "white space" -- to be used for mobile broadband services.

While their proposal calls for a new wireless broadband network utilizing the white space, it's still not clear that they wish to become a network operator. In its filing, they said it would "be willing to provide, at no cost to third parties, the technical support necessary to make these plans happen." That support could include "intellectual property and reference designs for underlying technologies, open geo-databases maintained by Google, and other supporting infrastructure."

Only time will tell whether this is more of an effort on their part to ensure that any new networks will provide open access to devices to phones based on Google’s Android mobile platform. If they do, they will be able to deliver ads to those mobile customers, and generate revenue in the way that they know best.

In the meantime, I’m definitely not be accepting any invitations for a poker evening with those guys – they are way better at bluffing than I am!

Clearwire-Sprint Deal Soon?

Unstrung.com had an interesting article yesterday regarding the 'on again, off again, on again' relationship between Sprint and Clearwire. They quote a recent report by Eric Kainer of ThinkEquity Partners, where he suggested that "is "close to the finish line" in striking a new network deal with Sprint, which would be financially backed by Best Buy, Google, and SK Telecom".

Kainer went on to speculate that a deal could be announced at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona next week, or soon after. "I believe that's the most likely time for Clearwire to announce the deal," he says.

While many have believed that Google were looking to win the 700 MHz spectrum currently being auctioned, it is increasingly being suggested that they were really acting as a stalking horse, bidding to ensure that the bids went high enough to trigger the 'open access' provision. Now that bids have passed the $4.6bn reserve, Kainer suggests that they are turning their attention to the 2.4 GHz WiMAX spectrum that would be part of any Sprint / Clearwire relationship. The attraction to Google would be able to "support tens of millions of users" nationwide in 2009 as part of the Xohm venture, whereas any nationwide network utilizing the 700 MHz spectrum would not be ready for prime time until 2012.

Clearly, Google's deep pockets could significantly help the more financially-challenged Sprint and Clearwire fund the roll-out of the Xohm WiMAX network in a more timely manner. Only time will tell if this has been their plan all along.

As we've said before, NextPhase supports any initiative that accelerates the benefits of mass manufacturing, bringing down the cost of WiMAX CPEs (Consumer Premise Equipment). If you remember back to the early days of WiFi, CPEs were $500, and yet within a few years, they're built into everything and their effective price to the consumer is zero. The same will happen with WiMAX technology, and we predict that it will happen even faster. While early mass market devices will focus on the 2.4 and 3.5 GHz bands, we believe that chipsets that auto-detect / auto-adjust to any existing of future WiMAX bands (700 MHz to 6.1 GHz).

WiMAX ready for a big boost?

With all the recent activity surrounding the 700 MHz spectrum auction, there's been quite a lot of spillover to all things WiMAX. In particular, there has been a lot of renewed interest in Clearwire's on again, off again, on again discussions with Sprint. This time around, the rumors have them furthering their plans for a nationwide WiMax network by forming a joint venture with other companies such as Best Buy, Intel and Google. Only time will tell if there is anything to all of this, but the renewed interest has thrown a spotlight on the value of their 2.5 GHz WiMAX spectrum, and spectrum in general. Remember, as you read anything about the value of spectrum, that we've recently been awarded a nationwide license to provide WiMAX wireless services in the newly released 3.65 GHz band (3650-3700 MHz), in addition to the LMDS licensed spectrum covering four metro BTAs ( Los Angeles, California; Atlanta, Georgia; Miami/Fort Lauderdale, Florida; and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania/Wilmington, Delaware/Trenton, New Jersey) that we've secured from Nextlink. We'll be covering this issue in a subsequent post, in a lot more detail.

Separately, the Wall Street Journal ran a very interesting article on how some firms are trying WiMAX to boost their internet hook-ups. In it, they talk about the increasing numbers of small to medium businesses who are switching from traditional connectivity options to WiMAX services, citing flexibility, scalability, reliability and cost-effectiveness as the reasons for switching. They give several examples of companies who've successfully switched to WiMAX and pre-WiMAX services, either because their previous providers couldn't service their needs, attractive price / performance, or to provide redundancy (far too many companies only learn that their redundant copper circuits often go through the same conduits as their primary circuit, when someone inadvertently puts a backhoe through both of them).

Lastly, telecommunications market research and analysis firm Maravedis revealed their latest report, entitled WiMAX, LTE and Broadband Wireless Worldwide Market Trends 2008-2014. In it, they suggest that WiMAX subscribers will exceed 100 Million by 2014 as WiMAX and LTE technologies converge upon 4G technologies and markets. They're predicting that WiMAX chipsets will start to be embedded in laptops in the second half of 2008, into handheld devices in 2009, and into consumer electronics by early 2010. In terms of the two technologies, they suggest that WiMAX will have a distinct advantage over LTE, as the latter will probably not be available in significant volumes until 2012. What's also interesting is some of the data points that they've highlighted:

• The accumulated market size for combined demand and supply of WiMAX equipment will reach $42 billion by 2014.

• There were over 1,650,000 BWA subscribers, including 635,000 WiMAX subscribers, at the end of 2007.

• The combined BWA and WiMAX equipment market totaled US$1.2 billion in 2007.

• The mobile version of WiMAX (802.16m) in 2011 will challenge cellular phone volume dominance.

700 MHz Auction - Latest Update

Ahead of the auction officially starting on January 24th, I'd previously posted a couple of blog entries that gave some of the background into the process, and why this spectrum is potentially important.

As a reminder, the auction is for a total of 60 MHz of spectrum, broken down into 5 Blocks (A through E). Block C is the most attractive block as it contains the most bandwidth -- 22MHz in total, broken into two 11MHz pairs -- and also because it consists of fewer regions, making it easier to assemble a contiguous, nationwide network. Also (primarily thanks to Google's lobbying efforts, and their commitment to meet the reserve bid of $4.6bn), the winner of this block must commit to creating an open-access network, meaning any device capable of supporting the appropriate protocols gets to play.

As always with the FCC, the processes and procedures tend to be a little bit more complicated than most people would like. Here's a summary of how 'Auction 73' works.

• Bidding began on January 24, in two consecutive rounds. Every business day, there is a total of three bidding rounds. After each round concludes, the FCC discloses the current asking price for each block without revealing anything about the winning bidders. Bidding continues indefinitely until no additional bids are placed.

• The reserve price for Block A is $1.81 billion; Block B, $1.37 billion; Block C, a whopping $4.64 billion; Block D, $1.33 billion, and Block E, $904 million. If at the end of bidding any reserves have not been met, a new auction, Auction 76, will automatically be spawned.
  

• The FCC's open-access requirement on Block C would be dropped if Auction 76 is triggered, fueling rumors that Google intends to bid up to the reserve price and then drop out. The date and new reserve prices for the remaining blocks would be decided when (and if) it's determined that Auction 76 is necessary.

So, here we are on day 5, and let's see how things stand:

• On most hotly contested C block, the current high bid is $4.3b, while the next qualifying bid must be at least $4.75b.

• As a whole, the auction has to gross over $10.3b, and that mark was also hit around noon today with $10.8b bid so far. That means that it’s extremely likely now that the auction will conclude successfully, and that the C Block will be won

• On the mixed public safety/private use D Block, the reserve price is $1.4b, but the bidding has hit only over $500m. If the bids don’t reach the reserve price, the block will likely be reformulated. Just days before the 700MHz auction began on Jan. 24, Frontline Wireless, one of the chief champions of the public/private public safety auction plan, dropped out, unable to secure adequate financing for the project.

While there are a total of 214 bidders for the various bands of spectrum, three players are considered front-runners for the C Block; Verizon Wireless, AT&T and Google. Industry watchers believe that having expended a lot of political capital in getting the open access provision included, Google are only staying in the race until the qualifying conditions are met, and they can gracefully decline to bid any further. Both AT&T and Verizon Wireless are looking at this Block for implementing their 4G plans (even though AT&T is already acquiring Aloha Partner's 700 MHz licenses. Thanks to the 70 MHz of spectrum that they have in many major markets (which is earmarked for their Xohm WiMAX roll-out), Sprint are sitting this one out, which is just as well, given their current financial situation.

All in all, while we don't have the final numbers in (sounds a bit like a primary, doesn't it), it seems like the auction is on track to a successful conclusion. Clearly, if the open access provision kicks in, we are all set to win. Google's CEO, Eric Schmidt, put it this way - “No matter which bidder ultimately prevails, the real winners of this auction are American consumers who likely will see more choices than ever before in how they access the Internet.”

WiMAX news and views from CES

As expected, the annual CES event in Las Vegas has been the platform for updates, (re)commitments and demos of all-things WiMAX.

Starting with the updates, Intel used a small fleet of cars to drive the press and other guests around to demonstrate the power of the wide-ranging wireless technology. The cars were equipped with an Intel-based "info-tainment" system, with an in-dashboard personal computer that was connected to the Internet via a WiMAX service that was being delivered from four base stations equipped with 60 feet antennas. Journalists were able to listen to audio streams and make VoIP calls at road speeds of up to 50MPH without ever losing the connection.

Next up, Intel gave more details on their Menlow and 'Baxter Peak' chipsets that will be finding their way into ultraportables and mobile internet devices that will start to ship from later this year. Nokia have committed to using the Baxter Peak chipset in their next iteration of their N-series Internet tablet, which will be WiMAX-enabled, and here is a link to a reporter from Popular mechanics trying out prototype "any time, any place, anywhere" WiMAX devices.

Sprint reassured everyone that their WiMAX plans are still on track. Currently soft-launching their Xohm WiMax business unit in Chicago and Baltimore, Sprint Nextel's CTO (and Xohm's President) said "being first to market is a huge advantage... and WiMAX technology is here, now and mature". He went on to explain that they had also looked at LTE (Long Term Evolution) which is a fourth-generation upgrade to existing cellular technologies, but discounted it because it isn't available yet.

Nokia and Samsung both confirmed that they expect to have user devices ready to launch in the second quarter , while Motorola confirmed that it is working on a multi-standard device that will operate over Sprint's EV-DO (Evolution-Data Optimized) cellular network, Wi-Fi and WiMAX.

Samsung also demonstrated WiMAX products that are already shipping in other markets; the SPH-P9000 which is a true Mobile WiMAX convergence device, enabling wireless broadband access and voice communications, and the M8100 which is the first commercially available Mobile WiMAX PDA device. Mobile data transmission speeds of 100Mbps have been achieved on moving vehicles, with speeds of 3.5Gbps achieved under stationary conditions.

These products have been available in South Korea since May 2006, and Samsung now provides Mobile WiMAX network solutions to various service providers in North and South America, and Asia. As we're no finally getting a band of WiMAX spectrum (3.65 - 3.70 GHz) to play in, we should start to see products and the supporting products appear later in the year and into next year.

Lastly, Motorola unveiled its latest WiMAX modem - the CPEi 100 - which is a single data port, 2.5 GHz Consumer Premises Equipment (CPE) device, designed to sit on a desktop and serve as the interface between a PC and the WiMAX network. Motorola has already introduced a number of mobile WiMax CPE units under its MOTOwi4 brand, but this is the smallest yet.

Motorola also summarized their WiMAX progress to date, by revealing that they have 15 WiMax contracts and more than 57 WiMax engagements in 38 countries worldwide, including 44 active trials.

All in all, it's been a good week for WiMAX. When it gets to the point that you can kick the tyres by actually holding products in your hands and trying out real services, it makes it a lot easier to draw distinctions between technologies such as WIMAX that are here now, and are available (ok... almost here in the US) and those like LTE that still remain unrealized engineering pipedreams.

Cell Phone Bills Surpassing Land Line

Statistics often show just how much things are changing, and how quickly. Yesterday, a report was released that showed 2007 is likely to be the first calendar year in which U.S. households spend more on cell phone services.

"The most recent government data show that households spent $524, on average, on cell phone bills in 2006, compared with $542 for residential and pay-phone services. By now, though, consumers almost certainly spend more on their cell phone bills," several telecom industry analysts and officials said.

As recently as 2001, U.S. households spent three times as much on residential phone services as they did on cell phones. But the expansion of wireless networks has made cell phones more convenient, and a wider menu of services, including text messaging, video and music, has made it easier for consumers to spend money via their cell phone.

Let's take a minute and look at another statistic. In Q3 2006, smartphones represented a 3.8% share of US mobile phone market (Source: Telephia European Subscriber and Device Report, Q3 2006). In the same quarter this year, 4.2 million smartphones were sold (out of a total of 38 million devices) which is an 11% market share. Various research reports (Gartner, Yankee, IDC, etc.) all suggest that smartphones will have a 20-25% market share by 2010.

So what does all that mean? Well, this helps us understand the imminent need for significant investment in backhaul capabilities that we talked about in yesterday's blog. Even though smartphones do not currently have access to true 3G in the US (which would really let them shine), we're already seeing them utilizing large amounts of data on the existing 2.5G networks. Once 3G, LTE and Mobile WiMAX technologies are deployed, we will see a huge increase as 'any time, any place, any device' creation, collaboration and consumption of content becomes a reality, and the bottleneck then will be how we're going to move around that huge amount of data.

Between 2000 and 2006, internet traffic grew at over 100% per year (source: Nemertes Research) and, assuming that the necessary capital investments in infrastructure are made), look sets to continue to grow at this pace through 2012. Last year, the average internet usage was 350 Megabytes per day, which is equivalent to downloading about an hour of Internet video, or multiple hours of working, emailing, talking, sharing, uploading, downloading and watching video—often at the same time. Highlighting trends such increased multitasking, switching to IP-based versions of non-IP applications (e.g. 'Net radio and IPTV), increasing oil prices, raising the cost of travel, aging baby boomers caring for elderly parents, with college-age children, a far-flung, highly distributed population and rapidly maturing technologies such as Web 2.0 programming and development tools, HD displays, low-cost cameras and recorders, and data storage, Nemertes Research suggests that demand could grow to the average user consuming or generating 26 Gbytes/day by 2012.

Again, for that growth to happen, significant investment is needed in infrastructure and particularly in how to distribute that data, and avoid bottlenecks. It is going to take a combination of wireline and wireless technologies to deliver on the promise of 'any time, any place, any device', and NextPhase Wireless is well positioned (with its licensed spectrum, strong industry partners and rapidly expanding wired and wireless footprints) to take advantage of this opportunity.

Mobile Backhaul Upgrades Deemed Essential

In an interesting research report from ABI Research, Mobile Backhaul Analysis: Global Trends and Opportunities Revenue, CAPEX and OPEX for T1/E1, Microwave, Ethernet over Copper, Ethernet over Fiber, and CATV, they draw attention to the imminent need for significant investment in backhaul capabilities, if carriers are to deliver on the promise of 3G and WiMAX technologies.

Having recently secured licensed spectrum in four key markets (Atlanta, Georgia; Los Angeles, California; Miami/Fort Lauderdale, Florida; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania / Wilmington, Delaware / Trenton, New Jersey) and announced a new range of Ethernet-based high capacity service plans utilizing licensed wireless spectrum, NextPhase Wireless is particularly well positioned to take advantage of this market opportunity.

In order for mobile operators to deliver the expected bandwidth of 3G and newer technologies, backhaul is critical,” says ABI Research senior analyst Nadine Manjaro. “Backhaul is a major contributor to network performance and cost, and operators should design their networks to meet peak traffic demand – not just average usage levels.”

Service provider testing shows that end-user data rates and the number of active subscribers served per sector vary greatly, based on the backhaul technology employed. For example, as T1 reaches near capacity, the network performance degrades by over 40%. But some operators believe that traffic usage is bursty, so a single T1 is sufficient to support a 3G cell site backhaul.

In a recent study, ABI Research forecasts global CAPEX for backhaul to increase from $14 billion in 2007 to $23 billion in 2012. OPEX also is expected to rise from $1 billion to $6 billion during the same period.

“As a result, operators should be focused on solutions that will meet their performance requirements with the minimum CAPEX and OPEX,” Manjaro explains. In 2007, T1/E1 and microwave backhaul became the two largest contributors to CAPEX and OPEX. ABI Research recommends that operators focus more on Ethernet-based solutions, including Ethernet over fiber and Ethernet over copper solutions, to optimize costs.

“In 2012, there will be a more distributed mix of backhaul technologies across the various options,” continues Manjaro. “However, microwave is expected to be the primary backhaul solution in all the regions studied, except Latin America and North America.

“Ethernet over fiber will be a very popular choice for upgrades between now and 2012, primarily due to its lower cost per megabit and high data rate, compared with other backhaul options.”

As operators upgrade their networks to meet growing bandwidth demand, they are upgrading to Ethernet-based solutions in both wired and wireless backhaul. The location of cell sites in existing service-provider infrastructure, bandwidth requirements, alternate carriers, interface requirements, and other factors all play a role.

End to 'will they, won't they?' as Google decide to bid on 700 MHz wireless spectrum.

Well, the waiting is finally over - Google have announced that they will be bidding on the 700 MHz wireless spectrum.

" These radio waves are being returned by broadcasters as they move from analog to digital signals early in 2009. The signals can go long distances and penetrate thick walls. The auction is seen as a last chance for a new wireless player."

In it's core search and advertising businesses, Google has been a great leveler for the little guy, who has been able to reach audiences that would have been traditionally unreachable. They have created incredible value for their shareholders by playing nicely with others, and by not being evil.

It's our belief that if Google were to win this auction for spectrum, they would focus on building out the enabling infrastructure and open up that platform to independent ISPs to deliver service to business and residential customers across the US. Let's not kid ourselves that this would be an altruistic act on their behalf, but they have continually shown by their actions that if they do play nicely with others, everybody wins (especially Google).

Increased video usages consumes excess bandwidth - bottleneck ahead

USA Today had an interesting article today - Video, interactivity could ensnare Web users by 2010 - based on a study by business technology analysts Nemertes Research.

The study assessed both infrastructure investment and current/projected traffic patterns independently, and compared the two. While the findings indicated that "core fiber and switching/routing resources will scale nicely to support virtually any conceivable user demand, Internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America, will likely cease to be adequate for supporting demand within the next three to five years."

While they don't suggest tha the Internet will collapse, "users will experience a slow, subtle degradation, so it's back to the bad old days of dial-up," says Nemertes President Johna Till Johnson.

In looking at how bandwidth is being consumed, Johnson highlights YouTube. "Two years ago, nobody knew what YouTube was. Now, it's generating 27 petabytes (27 million gigabytes) of data per month."

Much of today's traditional telecommunications infrastructure (cable, DSL, FioS, satellite) is architected for asynchronous delivery of content to both business and residential customers. Wireless technologies, being more scalable, flexible and rapid to deploy has an opportunity to be a 'bypass' technology, alleviating the coming bottlenecks to deliver the Internet experience that consumers are looking for.

Different target markets - similar business model

Associate Press put out a good story on our competitor, Towerstream - wireless links give businesses an option

It talks about how they target business customers requiring high-capacity circuits, and describes their strategy as "getting rooftop rights on tall buildings, set up antennas, and start calling all the offices it can see".

While there are similarities between what we do (i.e. targeting high-cap business customers, where higher revenues cover equipment costs), there are also a couple of major differences.

Towerstream focuses on major metropolitan markets (e.g. New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, etc.), whereas NextPhase focuses on secondary and tertiary markets, with our rationale being that there is less competition / more demand in these markets, with lower costs for roof rights, etc. Also, instead of relying on large sales teams to win new customers, our strategy is to identify markets that we wish to enter, acquire traditional wireline B2B ISPs in those markets, and then proceed to overlay a wireless footprint and migrate those customers.

Why am I comfortable talking about a competitor. Because our real competitors are the incumbent telcos, who currently offer business customers few options between a 1.5Mbps T-1 and a 45Mbps DS-3. That is the target market for NextPhase and Towerstream, and right now, it's more than big enough for both of us.

WiMAX Mobile (802.16E): Momentum is building

The recent adoption of WiMAX Mobile (802.16e) by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) as a global standard for mobile devices is a major milestone in the roll-out of this next-generation communication technology.

As the first new interface to be added since the standards were originally defined almost ten years ago, the decision increases WiMAX’s chances of becoming the preferred system for the next generation of high-speed wireless Internet access, and it is anticipated that it will spur development of the wireless technology, attract new investors and drive down hardware costs.

While WiMAX Mobile’s initial real-world performance will not live up to the some of its hype (certain laws of physics are immutable, and so 70Mbps over a distance of 70 km (approx. 40 miles) and speeds of 70MPH, is probably not going to be with us in the foreseeable future), first-generation products should allow symmetrical speeds of 10 Mbps at 10 km for line-of-sight scenarios, which is a significant advance from the 2G (GSM, iDEN) and 2.5G (GPRS, EDGE, 1x-RTT) networks that are deployed in the US today, and the planned 3G upgrades (UMTS, HSDPA).

Looking to repeat their ‘build it and they will come’ strategy that worked so well for Wi-Fi®, Intel has already invested over $2.5 billion in building WiMAX networks around the world and other WiMAX-related investments. Next year, Intel will introduce integrated, combination Wi-Fi/WiMAX chipsets that will be suitable for laptops, cell phones and mobile Internet devices, and their marketing machine will be stepping up their game.

It is clear that 'any time, any place, any device' broadband connectivity took a step closer to becoming a reality with the adoption of the WiMAX Mobile as a global standard by the ITU. NextPhase’s strategy continues to be building a significant nationwide footprint, deploying current-state pre-WiMAX customer premise equipment (CPE) and preparing to deploy WiMAX Mobile equipment as price/performance and market demand dictates.

Apple May Join Google And Bid On Wireless Spectrum

According to a report from BusinessWeek, Apple may join Google and bid on the 700-MHz wireless spectrum in the upcoming FCC auction.

Two sources tell BusinessWeek that Steve Jobs & Co. have studied the implications of joining the auction, which will be held Jan. 16. The winners will get rights to use the spectrum that analog TV broadcasters are handing back to the government in 2009, given their mandated move to digital television.

Dubbed "beachfront property" by the Federal Communications Commission, it's the last swathe of wireless spectrum likely to become available that would have the attributes necessary for a new mainstream broadband network (BusinessWeek.com, 8/1/07). Signals at the 700-Mhz spectrum, for example, could provide far faster Internet access than today's cellular or even Wi-Fi networks, and the signals can easily pass through buildings and work glitch-free, even in lousy weather.

While it's just a rumor at this point, it does suggest that the fight for true 'open access' isn't over yet, and that the incumbents might not find it as easy this time, to get their way.

FCC Approves Rules for Airwaves Auction

So.. the jury is in, having reached a verdict.

The FCC approved rules Tuesday for the auction of the 700Mhz spectrum, previously used by UHF television and set to be vacated by 2009.

While it does include "open access" rules for approximately 1/3rd of the spectrum that will be available, it is the watered down variety which will allow customers to use whatever phone and software they want on about one-third of the spectrum to be auctioned. While this is a belated step in the right direction, it smacks of compromise, and falls far short of the calls to separate infrastructure build-out from service provision. While various flavors of that model had been debated (particularly after Google declared their interest in bidding), the concept of service providers having wholesale access to the network, with the ability to package, price and deliver differentiated services (much as NextPhase does with DSL and and T1 circuits today, in many markets across the country) is for now, on hold.

As Michael Copps (one of the two Democrats commissioners) said after the vote, the commission "missed an important opportunity to bring a robust and badly needed third broadband pipe into American homes."

A total of 62 megahertz will be auctioned under the plan, with twenty-two megahertz subject to the "open access" rules. Another 10 megahertz will be dedicated to the national public safety network, which will be shared between a commercial operator and public safety agencies.

Tuesday's vote clears the way for the auction, which by law must take place no later than Jan. 28, 2008. It is expected to raise as much as $15 billion.

The pace of change is picking up

For those of you who follow our Press Releases, you'll see that the last couple of weeks has been pretty busy for us. We switched auditors, filed our Annual Report (10-K) and successfully completed the acquisition of Interactive Network Services, Inc. (INS), a New Jersey-based Internet Service Provider (ISP) providing primarily municipalities and more than 40 public schools in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region with connectivity, web hosting and co-location services.

As you can imagine, that hasn't left a lot of time for blogging, but just like a kettle will boil once it is no longer being watched, the pace of change in the industry went from a jog to a Sprint (every pun intended) while our attentions were elsewhere.

So, to recap the events of the last couple of weeks, it boils down to the following; 700Mhz spectrum auction, Google throwing their ring in the hat, Sprint / Clearwire partnership, and finally today, the announcement of a Sprint / Google partnership.

• 700MHz spectrum auction
  This has seen intense lobbying of the FCC, by established carriers and potential new nationwide players. Previously used for UHF television, it has the potential to raise up to $20BN for the US Treasury (source: Aloha Partners). Where all the intense lobbying is coming from is the level of 'openness' that the different players are pushing for. Several groups want the auction rules to require that a winning bidder cannot offer retail sales of services. Rather, the winner would have to build a wholesale network and sell on a non-discriminatory basis. Other forms of openness include allowing any legal device to connect and allowing any legal use. These are pillars in the network neutrality platform, of course. (The four pillars are often cited as any resale user, any use, any device, and no tiered service.)

• Where does Google fit in?
  All of the top mobile carriers will be bidding on this spectrum, with AT&T being the powerhouse. Google have thrown their hat in the ring, committing to bidding a minimum of $4.6b if the auction proceeds with as much openness as they want. They have asked the FCC to embrace four additional conditions as part of the auction rules: open applications, open devices, open services, and open networks. Sensing a seismic tilt to the playing field, the other big carriers are lobbying hard to have the auction structured in a way that keeps Google out.
  

Here at NextPhase, we very strongly support network neutrality, and are hopeful that the FCC listens and acts wisely. Open networks are good for competition and good for the consumer. It allows resellers to differentiate themselves by service, and keeps them focused on delighting their customers.

• Sprint / Clearwire partnership
  Stating that they want to do for the Internet what cellular networks did for voice calls, Sprint Nextel and Clearwire Corp. confirmed reports last week that they will collaborate to build out a nationwide WiMax network. The companies will not build out the network together in specific locales, but will independently install and light up infrastructure in the territories they've already targeted, enabling roaming between the two networks. They will also "work jointly on product and service evolution, shared infrastructure, branding, marketing and distribution," according to the statement, as well as exchanging selected 2.5 GHz spectrum in certain areas to optimize the network's performance.

I've probably had more investor calls on this topic than anything else, and what I've told everyone is that NextPhase sees this as a very positive move, both for the industry at large, and for our Company. With one big, bold move like this, Sprint Nextel and Clearwire Corp have legitimized the wireless broadband (and specifically, WiMax technologies) industry. To date, much of our time is spent on educating potential customers on the benefits of wireless technologies (e.g. flexibility, scalability, speed to deploy, cost-effectiveness, etc.) and this announcement makes that job a lot easier for us.

• Sprint / Google
  Google Inc. has made its biggest move yet on the U.S. mobile Web market by signing a deal with Sprint Nextel Corp. that positions the Internet company to build services to run on Sprint's planned WiMAX high-speed wireless network. The two companies announced today that Google will provide its Internet search service for a Web portal that Sprint is developing for the new WiMAX network. The press release went on to say that the deal is expected to boost Web access over the new WiMAX network and expand use of Google's search and communications services on mobile devices, with Google confirming that broadband wireless connectivity is key to growth and its strategy of selling Internet advertising.

Again, from NextPhase's perspective, announcements like this one only confirm that we're rapidly moving beyond technologies to rapidly maturing ecosystems. As I mentioned earlier in this post, the key differentiator is going to be service delivery. Here at NextPhase, we've been assembling all of the critical building blocks to be successful in this environment. We continue to build out our national presence in key secondary and tertiary markets through our M&A activity; we continue to expand our customer call center capabilities in Marietta, Georgia; we continue to develop relationships with market-leading partners, to deliver the next level of value-added services that will plug into this rich ecosystem.

A lot is happening very quickly, and it is a very exciting time for a very young industry, and particularly so for NextPhase. Keep watching this space, and we'll continue to try and to set all of these events into context, and sharing our insights into what we think will happen next.

Free telebriefing - WIMAX AND THE MOBILE INTERNET

In my previous life as CIO and CTO of 3 separate DuPont business units, I developed a healthy respect for the abilities of companies such as Gartner and Yankee Group to look into their crystal balls and predict how technological advances would impact the way we work and play.

The latter will be sponsoring a free telebriefing session on July 19th, 11:00 - 11:45 EST to share insights into areas near and dear to our hearts:

WIMAX AND THE MOBILE INTERNET

The Mobile Internet resides at the intersection of the two complementary worlds of Broadband and Mobility. When appropriately combined, technologies like WiMAX and mobile broadband will satisfy consumer and enterprise demand for next generation mobile services, extend the reach of Internet content and allow companies to do business anywhere. High-speed mobile broadband infrastructure and services will enable the always-on Anywhere Internet to develop as an open market for service, content, software companies and application providers to transform business and consumer interaction throughout the 21st century. This session explores what the implications of the mobile internet will be for carriers, enterprises and end-users alike.

Maybe it's because their insights are aligned with ours (the combination of different connectivity technologies to provide hybrid solutions, and the idea of an 'always-on Anywhere Internet'), but I think that this session is not to be missed.

Click here to sign up.

Hybrid solutions aren't just for automobiles

As covered in an entry last week, here at NextPhase, we firmly believe that the future of telecommunications is all about hybrid solutions, leveraging the very best of various wired and wireless technologies to to deliver flexible, scalable, cost-effective services that allow 'any time, any place, any device' creation, consumption and collaboration of content.

It was interesting to read today that Nortel Networks seem to feel the same way, too. They've announced their plans for creating what they're calling the "Unwired Enterprise", and it is all about integrating WiFi technologies into their existing product base.

Just like Moore's law, technological advances are going to keep squeezing ever more bandwidth out of copper, fiber and precious radio spectrum (both licensed and unlicensed), but at the rate that demand for connectivity continues to grow, it is going to take smart integration of all these various technologies to be able to deliver the goods!

Nortel Networks announced its plan for creating the "Unwired Enterprise," which involves integrating WiFi into existing wired infrastructure. Nortel said it will bring to market WiFi products based on the 802.11n draft specification once it's ratified as a standard. The idea is to combine WiFi and mesh systems, switches and routers embedded with wireless capability and a unified network management platform. For instance, Nortel will integrate WiFi functionality directly with the Ethernet switch, as opposed to offering stand-alone equipment like a wireless access point or a router.

Nortel's seriousness in the business can be measured by the fact that the vendor plans to build products in-house by upping its R&D spending. Previously, the company had outsourced its WiFi equipment to OEMs.

Apple & AT&T interview with Wall St Journal

As people start to learn whether the Apple iPhone lives up to all the hype, I was interested to read yesterday's interview with Steve Jobs and Randall Stephenson (AT&T Chairman & CEO).

The whole article is interesting as it talks about some of the compromises that they've had to make (e.g. using EDGE rather than a true 3G network, power requirements, etc.) but what particularly intrigued me was when they started talking about 'any time, any place, any device' networks and services.

Far too many people see the various wired and wireless technologies as competitors locked in a 'winner takes all' battle to the end. The view that we have at NextPhase Wireless (which is being echoed here by both Apple & AT&T) is that the technologies are complimentary, and that hybrid solutions enable richer functions and capabilities. Not all of the pieces are in place yet (seamless, real-time switching between networks & techologies, the underlying micro-payment systems to make sure everyone gets paid), but the iPhone offers a glimpse of what is on the near-horizon.

WSJ: To clarify on your comments about Wi-Fi handsets: Were you saying, Randall, that this phone will eventually evolve into that kind of device that does seamless roaming on Wi-Fi and cellular, or are you just saying there will be many more Wi-Fi devices?

Mr. Stephenson: This phone is the first device that truly kind of breaches that gap. You have a device they gets you true six-megabit broadband speeds on Wi-Fi connectivity. You get the mobility aspects of traditional cellular-type technologies. It begins to let your mind wonder. Once you have those kinds of speeds of a wireless handset … it just opens up a whole new world to what can be done on these wireless devices.

Mr. Jobs: A few years ago, the perception was that the large operators viewed Wi-Fi as potentially an enemy. And I think quite the opposite is now the case. Wi-Fi is viewed as a friend.

Mr. Stephenson: Absolutely -- in fact Wi-Fi is just an enhancement to your existing wireless capability. I have this perspective that the more wireless we become, the more wireline we become. The deeper you push these wireless capabilities the more you're relying on the underlying wired transport which is a much faster, high-capacity transport. And Wi-Fi just takes that to the nth degree. You could not have thought of VoIP on a wireless handset until you start thinking about Wi-Fi capabilities on these handsets. That doesn't intimidate us at all. I think it's a very nice enhancement to an existing service.

Wi-Fi Threatens Cell Phone Business With WiMax To Come

Broadband wireless, whether you're talking at the Personal Area Network (PAN), Local Area Network (LAN) or Wide Area Network (WAN) levels is a disruptive technology. Coined by Clayton M. Christensen, a disruptive technology or disruptive innovation is a technological innovation, product, or service that eventually overturns the existing dominant technology or status quo product in the market.

In trying to predict what sort of impact technologies like Ultra Wide Band (UWB) and WiMax (802.16d, 802.16E, and the similar 802.20 standard) will have on the way we work, play and interact with each other, looking at the impact of other disruptive technologies (and just how quickly they have that impact) gives us some useful insights. This Wikipedia entry on disruptive technologies gives some good examples (digital photography replacing traditional film, iPods replacing CDs which had previously replaced vinyl albums), but what strikes me is that the pace of the disruption is getting ever faster.

Take a look at what the article has to say about business implications, and then think about how the telcos (with the notable exception of Sprint, and even they can be seen to be dithering about their commitment to WiMAX) are responding to the rapid advances in broadband wireless technologies.

Disruptive technologies are not always disruptive to customers, and often take a long time before they are significantly disruptive to established companies. They are often difficult to recognize. Indeed, as Christensen points out and studies have shown, it is often entirely rational for incumbent companies to ignore disruptive innovations, since they compare so badly with existing technologies or products, and the deceptively small market available for a disruptive innovation is often very small compared to the market for the established technology.

Even if a disruptive innovation is recognized, existing businesses are often reluctant to take advantage of it, since it would involve competing with their existing (and more profitable) technological approach. Christensen recommends that existing firms watch for these innovations, invest in small firms that might adopt these innovations, and continue to push technological demands in their core market so that performance stays above what disruptive technologies can achieve.

While broadband wireless enabled cellphones don't have the ubiquitous coverage of traditional cellphones today, they're starting to show us a glimpse into the 'any time, any place, any device' future that these rapidly maturing technologies are opening up for us.

Are the telcos set to be left behind as the 21st century equivalents of carriage manufacturers, when the automobile came along? Probably not, as they have deep enough pockets to go out and acquire the new players as the technologies push things to the tipping point.

One way or another, this is going to be a very interesting space to watch over the next couple of years.

Wi-Fi Threatens Cell Phone Business With WiMax To Come

More and more cell phones can access WiFi, allowing the phones to work in cellular dead zones, and potentially saving consumers money by avoiding using cell networks altogether. The Wall Street Journal writes: "Operators have resisted selling WiFi phones in the past, fearing that such devices would eat into revenue from voice and data plans by allowing customers to cut back on cellular-network usage."

But, that's too bad. Handset manufacturers are making the phones, and consumers are buying them. The cell phone industry can either figure out a way to charge more for these handsets to offset network use, or they can take it on the chin.

The trend begs the question of what will happen if and when Sprint (S) launches its WiMax network. It is due to cover an area with 100 million people by the end of 2008. Other companies, especially Clearwire (CLWR) are building out WiMax systems in large cities. Sprint's WiMax is designed to work with its next generation phones, but, as an open standard, it may be technically possible to build handsets that can take advantage of WiMax while being sold directly to the consumer. It would be yet another way to bypass the cellular infrastructure.

The other business incentive for tapping into WiFi and WiMax is that companies like Motorola (MOT) and Nokia (NOK) are captives of the cell service providers who market their phones. The Apple (AAPL) iPhone is clearly a break from this model, but other handset companies do not have the cache to circumnavigate their largest customers, the network providers.

Unless they can build phones that don't need the network.

Elite Communications Group

Recently I have been asked why NextPhase hired Elite Communications Group to handle our Media and Investor Relations.

NextPhase has been growing at an astronomical rate. The cost to hire an in-house Investor Relation person is over twice the cost of hiring a firm such as Elite. Also, I have had a business relationship with the founders of Elite for the past 10 years. I have found them to be courteous and responsive to the needs of our shareholders.

Although the CEO Robert Ford and I are still available to take calls from our shareholders, we have found that the direct questions from potential investors and institutional investors are better handled by an Investor Relations firm and that the dissemination of material is more effective with the professionals.

With the new regulations and Sarbanes Oxley rules we feel we are more protected from outsiders gaining inside information by a slip or a inquisitive investor.

Thank you
Tom Hemingway
Chairman/COO